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I'd charge them 80% tariffs for the lousy jokes they put on back of their chocolate bars
jm25 (Galway) - Posts: 1426 - 04/04/2025 09:33:31 2600475 Link 2 |
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People expect a 50% correction in American stock market. It's completely bloated, and has attracted speculation from overseas investors. Tariffs will adjust this. Real Estate, especially in tristate area is primed for a correction, in fact it's gone up by about 70% in last 2 years, despite mortgage rates going from 3% to 7%. The American worker hasn't benefited from this "boom", and 60% of Americans do not own stocks. I see a similar scenario all over Europe, house prices in Irish cities are way inflated, and the wealth gap generated by globalization and speculation, as well as over printing money during pandemic and the Great Recession of 2008, is now in my mind what has fueled Brexit and Trumpism. Young people may be the main beneficiaries of the imminent downturn, asset prices should diminish, and they may enjoy the life their parents had!
Ryanteam (Cork) - Posts: 504 - 04/04/2025 13:04:27 2600525 Link 0 |
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That's true! During 1980's especially union workers were replaced by contractors, and this trend has accelerated. Companies do not want to pay healthcare costs, and benefits to full time workers. Contractors are easily terminated and rehired.
Ryanteam (Cork) - Posts: 504 - 04/04/2025 13:25:10 2600532 Link 0 |
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60% of Americans don't own stocks…that percentage is even higher in Ireland but many people's pensions are tied up in the stock market. I've seen Americans online the last few days cheering the stock market fall…"The stock market only affects rich people" - well that's an idiotic claim. The fact is what happens on Wall Street affects us all.
yew_tree (Mayo) - Posts: 11522 - 04/04/2025 18:36:39 2600572 Link 0 |
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You misunderstand… 60% of Americans do not own stocks in any way. They don't have pensions as those have been phased out. The middle class is being obliterated. When you see 80 year olds working in Walmart, you see a major problem. The American stock market has more than doubled since 2016, it's due for a correction. There's a doozy at the helm of the country, who has bankrupted himself several times, and yet people who would have been better off voting for Bernie Sanders voted for the great orange TV star. You couldn't make it up!
Ryanteam (Cork) - Posts: 504 - 04/04/2025 21:29:29 2600593 Link 0 |
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Almost two thirds of the annual budget spend goes on Defense and Military - the US Military Industrial complex is huge and has been build up ever since the first world war and after the second in particular once the US adapted to its new place in world order and realized that to project their economic colonization around the world they needed to match that with a military force. It suited the US for Europe to remain dependent on them during the cold war, they perhaps did not anticipate the economic success of the EU and now think its unfair that the EU doesn't spend the same as them on defense despite its economic success. Now Europe will move away from reliance on the US but the US is not happy if this includes building up their own Military Complex. The point here is that to cut the deficit the US had to reign in Military spending however if your uses the money to build their own then the US is worse off. By the way Taxpayers did not pay for the national debt, they fund the interest payments. About 35% of the debt is held internationally. What the US is currently doing is creating a real risk to the US$ as the global reserve CCY, if that happens finding buyers for their debt will become a problem. All this while the lunatics think that they should have a crypto reserve. Trump and the people he has gathered around him have reduced everything to simple one liners, there is nothing new with this in the US and it is not confined to Republicans, it was not Republicans who coined the phrase - its the economy stupid - it was not too long ago that Republicans were the Globalists and the Democrats the America first party. There really has never been independent media in the US, as a result the media has been used by all sides to emphasis that one sided view as being right. Whats happening today however is the extreme where any action can be justified with a one liner - lie. It was something that has been coming and the only hope for the world is that republicans will begin to see through this and Democrats start to put forward credible candidates and policies that the majority can get behind. zinny (Wexford) - Posts: 1936 - 05/04/2025 08:49:48 2600612 Link 3 |
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I understood what you said. My point what happens on the stock market absolutely effected middle and poor income people. We and they are always the ones to suffer most. A multi billionaire looses 2-3 billion…won't put him or her on the breadline.
yew_tree (Mayo) - Posts: 11522 - 05/04/2025 10:18:08 2600621 Link 0 |
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Good post Zinny
Viking66 (Wexford) - Posts: 15290 - 05/04/2025 10:27:43 2600623 Link 0 |
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Trump and Wall Street are trying to pressurize Powell to lower interest rates. He can't as tariffs will raise inflation. Americans voted this guy in, he promised tariffs, and they'll have to shoulder the consequences. Trump could very well back down, but he's so unpredictable, nobody knows. The harm he's doing to the auto business and Canada is unimaginable! Wall Street and corporate America is largely at fault, as Bernie Sanders has been screaming for decades. The pharmaceutical industry has outsourced all manufacturing, mostly to Ireland, and research to companies like WuXi in Shanghai. Well qualified PhD scientists in US are unemployed or under employed, and RFK is absolutely not the right guy to head the FDA!
Ryanteam (Cork) - Posts: 504 - 05/04/2025 12:00:39 2600635 Link 0 |
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Have you the figures for that because the data I've read shows that the US is by far the largest producer of pharma in the world.
yew_tree (Mayo) - Posts: 11522 - 05/04/2025 12:26:44 2600636 Link 0 |
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Biggest pharmaceutical companies are American, yes, but few of them manufacture here. For example, Merck has multiple factories in Ireland, and outsources a lot of research to China. In any event, Trump will have trouble reversing decades of outsourcing in one day, by installing tariffs. Yet, if Republicans continue to back him in senate and Congress he will continue to cause chaos! I think Europeans would survive a downturn better than Americans, as they have a lot of social programs which protect their citizens. Americans get thrown to the kerb!
Ryanteam (Cork) - Posts: 504 - 05/04/2025 13:10:11 2600637 Link 0 |
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They are. Not sure where he's gets that figure from. We do make plenty here obviously, and send plenty into the US, but I don't see companies moving manufacturing back to the US if the mooted tariffs come. They still need access to the EU market and the EU can pull the FDA/EMA bilateral agreement at any point, and for any product, and block access of US based companies to the EU single market. It would be a disaster for Ireland if that were to happen (as the FDA would reciprocate) but it simply won't happen. The big pharma lobby is too powerful. And the EU hold even more power over the tech industry. If they were to clamp down on big tech, or even loosely threaten to, you'd see Trump back down quickly - all his major backers (enablers) are big tech. The car tariffs makes some sense as there are rust belt cities waiting to be rebooted for decades now. But the support structures needed to bring pharmaceutical manufacturing to any areas of the US where they're not already draining all the skilled labour simply aren't there. And would take years to develop. cavanman47 (Cavan) - Posts: 5240 - 05/04/2025 13:48:34 2600639 Link 0 |
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When world markets fall enough, Trump and his family will close their short positions and announce big tariff negotiations. It's a game that Trump has played for decades, and the insider trading will continue unabated. He knows he hasn't got a hope of reversing globalization, but he enjoys power and enjoys controlling world markets. US pharmaceutical companies still enjoy big profits, the QC, regulatory and corporate business personnel are largely in US, but manufacturing is gone and unlikely to return. Generics have gone to India and China and definitely won't return!
Ryanteam (Cork) - Posts: 504 - 05/04/2025 14:25:50 2600640 Link 0 |
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They also want to get a better return from labour for less money. They negotiate performance-related contracts with vendors that can include penalties for targets missed. They've no room for sentiment, improving profit is king. If they think AI will do a better job they won't renew some thid-party contractor deals and not think twice about laying off their own staff.
GreenandRed (Mayo) - Posts: 7869 - 05/04/2025 14:41:48 2600641 Link 0 |
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But would you consider generics to be 'big pharma'? I wouldn't. The blockbuster drugs (Keytruda, Olzempic, etc.) are where the huge money is. Once the patent expires it's either snapped up by another big player or let go to generic manufacturers because the money isn't in it any longer and theyve moved onto the next one. They still manufacture huge quantities in the US but they don't export much (relatively) to the EU. Those supply chains won't be easy to set up if Trump hits the EU pharma sector. It just makes sense to keep producing here (and in Germany, Swiss, etc.). Oh and QC doesn't stay in the US if manufacturing moves out - 90% of QC has to follow it. cavanman47 (Cavan) - Posts: 5240 - 05/04/2025 14:53:38 2600642 Link 0 |
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They still do a lot of QC in US, for development projects and new pipeline drugs . QC on manufacturing will be done onsite, but QC protocols and development are done in USA, according to FDA guidelines. Keytruda is manufactured in Co. Meath and generates about 25 billion of sales for Merck. However, patent expired in 2028. I don't consider generics to be big pharma.. just that manufacturing in general has left USA. America is a service economy, pharmaceutical manufacturing was considered "dirty", it was too expensive to satisfy environmental control in US, so companies were only too willing to ship manufacturing overseas. I still remember a frequent whiff of hydrogen sulfide meandering over the river Lee from plants in Ringaskiddy. Biologics like Keytruda are "cleaner " though!
Ryanteam (Cork) - Posts: 504 - 05/04/2025 15:21:35 2600643 Link 0 |
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One problem I understand that pharmaceuticals are so far excluded from Trump's tariffs, is that the API (or active ingredient) is say produced in Ireland, but often formulated into final product in another country. Trump doesn't know who to target! Although the Pfizer CEO has indicated that he may move some manufacturing back to US, it's unlikely to be widespread. Pfizer is not doing well, has looming patent expirations and is already cutting staff in Cork!
Ryanteam (Cork) - Posts: 504 - 05/04/2025 15:35:45 2600644 Link 0 |
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It also should be mentioned most of the pharma here is the European branch of these huge pharma corporations. They also have plants in the US. yew_tree (Mayo) - Posts: 11522 - 05/04/2025 16:24:54 2600646 Link 0 |
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Yes.. just not manufacturing. That's what Trump is railing against. Merck has 3 or 4 manufacturing plants in Ireland, and research development plants plus corporate plants in US. Trump wants manufacturing back in US. Let's see how he goes!
Ryanteam (Cork) - Posts: 504 - 05/04/2025 17:08:32 2600651 Link 0 |
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GOOD MAN TRUMP! Trump2020 (Galway) - Posts: 2457 - 05/04/2025 17:11:35 2600652 Link 1 |