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Replying To BarneyGrant:  "Immigration is the main driver of housing demand so solution is to import more migrants to build more houses for migrants?

Is this supposed to make sense?"
Are you familiar with how those types of contract sites work?

Firstly I never once said immigration was actually driving demand.

Second, the way those sites operate in Australia or Canada is modular buildings and temporary accommodation on site while the project is ongoing. It's a fairly standard thing globally for large scale infrastructure projects.

Supply and demand is balanced by equilibrium in theoretical economics. We're way off the scale where price is driven by inadequate supply rather than excessive demand. We need to tip the balance using creative solutions. If we try to keep doing the same thing we'll just stand still.

Doylerwex (Wexford) - Posts: 3142 - 15/11/2024 13:12:27    2579731

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Replying To Seanfanbocht:  "Why would Government want housing shortages as a stick to beat themselves with?"
Because most of them are landlords. This is commonly known.

Doylerwex (Wexford) - Posts: 3142 - 15/11/2024 13:13:22    2579732

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Replying To Doylerwex:  "Are you familiar with how those types of contract sites work?

Firstly I never once said immigration was actually driving demand.

Second, the way those sites operate in Australia or Canada is modular buildings and temporary accommodation on site while the project is ongoing. It's a fairly standard thing globally for large scale infrastructure projects.

Supply and demand is balanced by equilibrium in theoretical economics. We're way off the scale where price is driven by inadequate supply rather than excessive demand. We need to tip the balance using creative solutions. If we try to keep doing the same thing we'll just stand still."
If 90% of population growth is made up of immigrants - I refer people once again to the latest CSO population estimates and projections - then most of excess demand is driven by immigration. I am familiar with basic maths.

BarneyGrant (Dublin) - Posts: 3118 - 15/11/2024 14:09:52    2579743

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Replying To BarneyGrant:  "If 90% of population growth is made up of immigrants - I refer people once again to the latest CSO population estimates and projections - then most of excess demand is driven by immigration. I am familiar with basic maths."
You and I have a very different agenda here I think. Immigration is a factor, not the cause. We had a housing crisis before the influx of refugees began.

Doylerwex (Wexford) - Posts: 3142 - 15/11/2024 14:42:53    2579749

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Replying To BarneyGrant:  "If 90% of population growth is made up of immigrants - I refer people once again to the latest CSO population estimates and projections - then most of excess demand is driven by immigration. I am familiar with basic maths."
Only 15.5% of our population are citizens of other countries. To say that's the cause simply cannot be correct. It is a mathematical impossibility.

Citing that 90% figure for 2024 is suggesting there were homes for everyone in 2023 which simply isn't the case.

The housing crisis started in circa 2011.

Refugees aren't trying to buy Houses. They aren't even in the market.

Although I do appreciate the impact it could potentially have on social housing and potentially the private rental sector.

Doylerwex (Wexford) - Posts: 3142 - 15/11/2024 14:49:38    2579750

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Replying To BarneyGrant:  "If 90% of population growth is made up of immigrants - I refer people once again to the latest CSO population estimates and projections - then most of excess demand is driven by immigration. I am familiar with basic maths."
This is at least the 2nd time you have floated this 90% population growth being made up of immigrants and quoting the CSO without any numbers to back your words up.
Now, I've just checked the CSO stats. In the 12months to April 2024, total migration into Ireland was 149200. Of these 30k were returning Irish, 27.4k were other EU citizens and 5.4 were UK citizens. That leaves 86.8k from other countries. There is no breakdown between Ukrainian refugees or other immigrants. That's a long way off 90%.

Freethinker (Wicklow) - Posts: 1265 - 15/11/2024 15:11:08    2579753

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Replying To Doylerwex:  "Only 15.5% of our population are citizens of other countries. To say that's the cause simply cannot be correct. It is a mathematical impossibility.

Citing that 90% figure for 2024 is suggesting there were homes for everyone in 2023 which simply isn't the case.

The housing crisis started in circa 2011.

Refugees aren't trying to buy Houses. They aren't even in the market.

Although I do appreciate the impact it could potentially have on social housing and potentially the private rental sector."
22% of population are born overseas. Citizenship includes tens of thousands of these. They too add to demand.

If there are 100,000 people a year coming into the country of course this is main reason for increased demand! That is simple maths.

Refugees do add to housing demand but only represent a minority of immigrants who are working and do have to buy and rent.

Why would you think they do not add to demand? Do they bring their houses with them?

BarneyGrant (Dublin) - Posts: 3118 - 15/11/2024 15:37:29    2579758

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Replying To BarneyGrant:  "Immigration is the main driver of housing demand so solution is to import more migrants to build more houses for migrants?

Is this supposed to make sense?"
Economic growth is the main cause of immigration Barney. That and emigration, as yoing Irish people leave because they can't afford to live here.
And the largest single component of our immigration figures is returning Irish people.
Maybe you should read the CSO stats you keep mentioning, but never actually quote, more carefully.

Viking66 (Wexford) - Posts: 13852 - 15/11/2024 16:12:39    2579767

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Replying To BarneyGrant:  "If 90% of population growth is made up of immigrants - I refer people once again to the latest CSO population estimates and projections - then most of excess demand is driven by immigration. I am familiar with basic maths."
Mathematics is numbers. If and most of aren't actual events or numbers.

Population estimates and projections are predictions of future numbers based on current data trends. They could turn out to be under or over-estimated.

GreenandRed (Mayo) - Posts: 7651 - 15/11/2024 16:19:14    2579769

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Replying To BarneyGrant:  "22% of population are born overseas. Citizenship includes tens of thousands of these. They too add to demand.

If there are 100,000 people a year coming into the country of course this is main reason for increased demand! That is simple maths.

Refugees do add to housing demand but only represent a minority of immigrants who are working and do have to buy and rent.

Why would you think they do not add to demand? Do they bring their houses with them?"
Are you talking about refugees or immigrants?

When you say born overseas are you including Irish parents with kids born in Australia, UK, Canada, USA? Or do you know?

Refugees live in tents and hotels. They're not currently in the equation of the conversation on affordable housing.

Immigrants who are employed in tech or healthcare is a totally different conversation.

Regardless if all those people were gone tomorrow we'd still have a problem with housing stock.

For what's it worth I do not approve of unmitigated influx of people here while we have shortages of housing, GPs, school places etc. But to say they are to blame for this is nonsense.

Doylerwex (Wexford) - Posts: 3142 - 15/11/2024 19:35:12    2579794

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Replying To BarneyGrant:  "22% of population are born overseas. Citizenship includes tens of thousands of these. They too add to demand.

If there are 100,000 people a year coming into the country of course this is main reason for increased demand! That is simple maths.

Refugees do add to housing demand but only represent a minority of immigrants who are working and do have to buy and rent.

Why would you think they do not add to demand? Do they bring their houses with them?"
That 22% born overseas include many who are born to one or two Irish parents Barney.

Viking66 (Wexford) - Posts: 13852 - 15/11/2024 20:30:33    2579804

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Replying To GreenandRed:  "Mathematics is numbers. If and most of aren't actual events or numbers.

Population estimates and projections are predictions of future numbers based on current data trends. They could turn out to be under or over-estimated."
Could you be a little bit more pacific please. thanks in advance.

supersub15 (Carlow) - Posts: 3049 - 15/11/2024 21:07:43    2579811

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Replying To supersub15:  "Could you be a little bit more pacific please. thanks in advance."
Would that be as in specific or ocean ??

Freethinker (Wicklow) - Posts: 1265 - 15/11/2024 21:31:20    2579817

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Replying To GreenandRed:  "Mathematics is numbers. If and most of aren't actual events or numbers.

Population estimates and projections are predictions of future numbers based on current data trends. They could turn out to be under or over-estimated."
"Mathematics is numbers."

At the risk of sounding a bit pedantic, mathematics is far more than just numbers.

Cockney_Cat (UK) - Posts: 2654 - 15/11/2024 22:18:00    2579819

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Replying To Freethinker:  "Would that be as in specific or ocean ??"
Either way that poster seem to be all out at sea.

supersub15 (Carlow) - Posts: 3049 - 15/11/2024 22:33:06    2579821

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Replying To supersub15:  "Either way that poster seem to be all out at sea."
Touché . I was just trying to lighten the mood, not be smart

Freethinker (Wicklow) - Posts: 1265 - 15/11/2024 23:31:50    2579829

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Replying To Cockney_Cat:  ""Mathematics is numbers."

At the risk of sounding a bit pedantic, mathematics is far more than just numbers."
Thanks for clarifying. Context over your head once again. No-one here could ever accuse you of pedantry.

GreenandRed (Mayo) - Posts: 7651 - 16/11/2024 06:21:59    2579839

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Replying To supersub15:  "Could you be a little bit more pacific please. thanks in advance."
Which part of my reply was difficult to understand?

GreenandRed (Mayo) - Posts: 7651 - 16/11/2024 06:24:28    2579840

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Replying To Viking66:  "That 22% born overseas include many who are born to one or two Irish parents Barney."
It does not indeed. I suggest you look at the breakdown in the Census retyrns.

"Some" is the word you seek.

BarneyGrant (Dublin) - Posts: 3118 - 16/11/2024 07:48:31    2579841

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Replying To Viking66:  "Economic growth is the main cause of immigration Barney. That and emigration, as yoing Irish people leave because they can't afford to live here.
And the largest single component of our immigration figures is returning Irish people.
Maybe you should read the CSO stats you keep mentioning, but never actually quote, more carefully."
The majority of immigrants are not returning Irish. More Irish people leave than return.

BarneyGrant (Dublin) - Posts: 3118 - 16/11/2024 07:50:50    2579842

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